Today's Fed Statement, Sees in Housing Tentative 'stabilization'

Housing's obviously testing the economy-tinkering skills of the nation's central bankers. The Fed's interest-rate policy committee did nothing today. No surprise! They've kept the benchmark Fed Funds rate at 5.25% since June, after ramping it up from its cyclical low of 1% before June 2004.

See this snippet of the Fed's post-meeting comments from today:
"Recent indicators have suggested somewhat firmer economic growth, and some tentative signs of stabilization have appeared in the housing market. Overall, the economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters."

Crossing Wall St.: Core inflation has now "improved modestly," where last month it was "elevated." With Jeffrey Lacker off the committee, the vote was unanimous.

For the fifth meeting in a row, the Federal Reserve does nothing: To read the entire Fed statement, CLICK HERE & Fed Holds Again PARSING THE FED from the WSJ

From MarketWatch: GDP surges at 3.5% rate in fourth quarter

WHICH MINING STOCKS I LIKE NOW

1. AAUK: Anglo American - The Company owns a range of assets covering gold, platinum, diamonds, coal, ferrous and base metals, industrial minerals and paper and packaging
2. FRG: Fronteer Development Group - is an exploration stage company, engages in the acquisition and exploration of mineral properties. The company?s property portfolio comprises Agi Dagi, Kirazli, and Biga properties located in Biga Peninsula of northwestern Turkey; Wernecke Breccias property located in Yukon Territory, Canada; and Clara and San Pedro properties located in Jalisco State, Mexico.
3. CDE: Coeur D'Alene Mines Corp - is engaged in the operation and/or ownership, development and exploration of silver and gold mining properties and companies located primarily within the United States (Nevada, Idaho and Alaska) South America (Chile, Argentina and Bolivia), Australia (New South Wales) and Africa (Tanzania).
4. AUY: Yamana Gold, Inc. - is a leading Canadian-based gold mining company with significant gold and copper production, gold development stage properties, exploration properties and land positions throughout North and South America.
5. EGO: Eldorado Gold Corporation - engages in the exploration, development, extraction, processing, and reclamation of gold properties principally in Brazil, Turkey, and the People?s Republic of China.
6. GG: Goldcorp inc. - is a North American-based gold producer engaged in exploration, extraction and processing of gold. The Company's primary asset is its Red Lake Mine, a gold mine in Canada.
7. GSS: Golden Star Resources - engages in the mining, exploration, and production of gold primarily in Ghana, West Africa.
8. KGC: Kinross gold corporation - is principally engaged in the mining and processing of gold and, as a by-product, silver ore and the exploration for, and the acquisition of, gold bearing properties primarily in the Americas and Russia
9. TSX-V: San Gold Corp - San Gold Corporation is a Canadian mining company focused on gold exploration and mining in the Rice Lake Greenstone Belt in SE Manitoba, Canada.
10. SLW: Silver Wheaton - is a mining company deriving all its revenue from silver production. The Company's principal product is silver that it has agreed to purchase from the Luismin Mines in Mexico and the Zinkgruvan Mine in Sweden.

(click on name for company website.)

Other picks: Newmont (NEM), Gold Fields (GFI), Harmony Gold (HMY), Glamis Gold (GLG), Llhir Gold (LIHR).

The East Bay Breaks Jobs Record for 2006

Despite Record Job Growth, Some Companies Are Downsizing
from the Contra Costa Times, reports, "Owens Corning HomExperts has decided to eliminate 166 jobs in Livermore as the company exits its home services business... The reductions, while painful for the workers involved, are being undertaken at a time when the East Bay has reached an all-time record number of jobs… The Association of Bay Area Governments predicted that employment growth would continue at a steady pace in the East Bay in 2007, and that employment expansion would also occur in the South Bay and San Francisco area."

Giant speculative buildings set to fill growing demand
from the Arizona Republic, reports that developers are building the first of several supersized speculative industrial buildings to answer demand for more industrial space. In the Valley, developers rarely put up buildings with more than 200,000 square feet of space without a tenant in mind. But now at least four projects with buildings no smaller than 350,000 square feet are under construction. These projects, three in the southwest Valley and one in Casa Grande, account for about 3.6 million of the 8.5 million now under construction, brokers say. Demand for large industrial spaces has been growing the past few years as Phoenix has become a regional distribution center. Phoenix's industrial boom also is attributed to proximity to California and trucking rules. Anthony Lyons of Grubb & Ellis said 45 percent of containers come to the U.S. through the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, and many companies are looking to Phoenix to store and distribute these products.

Report: BofA In Merger Talks With Countrywide
from the Jacksonville Business Journal , reports, "Bank of America is in talks with Countrywide Financial Corp. that could lead to a merger, according to the Financial Times Website. The companies have held discussions about an alliance that would be the nation's biggest mortgage lender, citing people close to the matter. Those talks could lead to BofA's purchase of Countrywide or a joint venture under which BofA would use its branch network to sell home mortgages originated by Countrywide… BofA has a 32.8% market share in Northeast Florida, with $9.1 billion in area deposits as of June 30."

Countrywide profits mixed, volume down
Countrywide Financial Corp. reported that despite a poor showing in the fourth quarter, the home mortgage company ended 2006 with record earnings for the year. The company reported Tuesday that its net earnings for the year totaled nearly $2.7 billion, compared to $2.5 billion in 2005, an increase of 6 percent.
Its fourth quarter earnings declined about 3 percent from the same period in 2005, however.
"In the face of a challenging environment which included flat and inverted yield curve conditions, home price depreciation, slowing home sales, declining production volumes, and pressure on credit quality, Countrywide set a new record for annual diluted earnings per share," a company statement quoted Chairman and CEO Angelo Mozilo as saying.
The company also reported a 6 percent decline in loan production volume.
To read more CLICK HERE.

Valley New Home Market shows signs of stabilizing

Valley new home market shows signs of stabilizing
from the East Valley Tribune, reports that following a year of slumping sales, the Valley's new home market is expected to stabilize in 2007 as builders continue to get rid of excess inventory. "2006 activity will cause the industry to pause and recognize that housing in this market area has to be affordable," said RL Brown, publisher of the Phoenix Housing Market Letter. The dramatic run up in prices during last year's housing frenzy was not sustainable, he said. Home sellers will need to price homes according to today's market or withdraw their listings. Builders must be more realistic if they plan on staying in business, Brown added. The median price of a new home in the Valley was $285,000 in December, down 5 percent from December 2005 but up 8.5 percent from January 2006. Prices should begin to stabilize to a more traditional 4 percent to 5 percent rate of appreciation, he said, adding that new home permits should be in the low 40,000's.

Homes are still hot in some places from the USA TODAY,
reports that while some parts of the country are facing a housing downturn, other areas are experiencing robust sales and price appreciation. Some of the cities noted that were doing well include Seattle, El Paso, Portland, Austin, Houston, Jacksonville, Charlotte and even Los Angeles. All posted price appreciation from the third quarter 2005 through the third quarter 2006. Cities showing gains exhibited high job growth and positive net migration figures. They were also areas in which home affordability remained close to national averages through the boom, making them less prone to the corrections and adjustments seen in overheated markets. "In the highest growth markets, there were a lot of folks who panicked when they saw prices going up by 8, 10 or 12% a year and rushed to buy in," said Kermit Baker at Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies. That caused an adjustment in some markets once prices stabilized or fell, when investors got the itchy finger and started selling their properties.

Credit Crunch: Tighter Loan Standards? from UrbanDigs
Resetting into higher interest rate loans could create a credit crunch down the road that could extend the leg of the housing correction; especially for much of the country outside of New York City. NYC real estate is 75% co-op and as such, is comprised mostly of buildings who have financial guidelines and policies for prospective purchasers to pass before allowing the deal to go through. This somewhat protects NYC when discussing topics like this as most buyers of co-ops are financially able to afford their home; even if their loan does reset. Not so for the rest of the country. So, we may have a domino effect on our local real estate market should this type of scenario play out in the future; with Manhattan real estate being affected more psychologically and at a lag. ENTIRE POST HERE

Housing Bubble and Real Estate Market Tracker for 1/31
Housing Bubble and Real Estate Market Tracker for 1/30

Higher Bond Yields Hurt Stocks

Monday morning's rally faded in the afternoon, sending the S&P 500 and the NYSE composite to their third consecutive daily declines. Once again, rising bond rates were blamed for the weakness in US equities. Volume totals were slightly higher on the NYSE and slightly lower on the Nasdaq exchange. Breadth was positive as advancers led decliners by an 18-to-15 ratio on the NYSE and by an 18-to-13 ratio on the Nasdaq exchange.

PICTURED ABOVE: The Nasdaq Composite is lingering near support offered by its 50-day moving average (DM) line. Any violation of recent chart lows could be expected to lead to additional downside testing of chart support near its November-December lows in the 2,390-2,394 area. Technically weakness below that level would definitely prompt greater concerns about the market's health.

There were small gains for the Retail Index ($RLX +0.31%) and in most tech areas as the Internet ($DOT +0.29%), Biotechnology ($BTK +0.17%), Software ($GSO +0.15%), and Networking ($NWX +0.10%) indexes ended Monday's session up slightly. The Healthcare ($HMO +0.14%) group also managed a small gain, meanwhile the major averages had a difficult time making progress as the Semiconductor ($SOX -0.52%), and Bank ($BKX -0.51%) were the sources of modest weakness. Heavier losses showed up in the Gold & Silver ($XAU -1.82%) and Broker/Dealer ($XBD -1.16%) indexes, and the energy group backpedaled as the Oil Services ($OSX -0.79%) and Integrated Oil ($XOI -0.50%) indexes ended the day in the red.

Dr. Brett's Market Synthesis: ES Pivot Points for Tuesday:
Pivot Level: 1427.50; R1: 1431.75; R2: 1436.75; S1: 1422.50; S2: 1418.25

Analyst Calls (JAN 30, 2007) & Pre-Market Stock Notes (JAN 30, 2007)

TradingMarkets 7 Stocks You Need to Know for Tuesday

Portable Alpha's Long-Term Market Model – Bearish since December 8th.
Asset Allocation – AAS Model Portfolios are between 56.25% and 75% long currently

Phoenix Ranks as Financial Services Giant

Phoenix ranks as financial services giant
from the Arizona Republic, reports that metro Phoenix has made impressive strides in developing its financial-industry base, emerging in recent years as a key regional player for a growing number of banks, insurers, brokerage firms, independent lenders and others. While corporate headquarters remain scarce, regional hubs are popping up all over. "We've become a regional choice (for financial firms) in the southwestern United States," said Barry Broome, president and CEO of the Greater Phoenix Economic Council (GPEC). Many of the same factors that attract other businesses here also lure financial firms, including good weather, good travel through Sky Harbor, and a location in a time zone that's conducive to taking late afternoon and evening calls from customers. Look for Phoenix to start attracting "corporate headquarter" operations as our economy grows.

Will market swallow its 'medicine'? from the Arizona Republic,
reports on RL Browns housing forecast last week and cites some of the items on his list of market cracks. They are: New home developments too quickly becoming resale communities as early investors competed with homebuilders; the Valley's loss of its affordable edge compared with other big cities; transportation gridlock for home buyers on the fringes; "Disneyland" financing; and the collapse of the resale market due to too many overpriced listings. Brown believes the following must occur for the market to come back: Home builders have to get rid of their excess inventory; help buyers sell their existing homes to close on new ones; and repositioning edge subdivisions to give buyers more value. "We are going to have to take our medicine," Brown said.

Housing Bubble and Real Estate Market Tracker from SA

Low-End of Luxury-Home Sector Shows Some Signs of Chill from the WSJ,
reports, as the national housing market continues to weaken, prices of houses in the $1 million range are slumping in many parts of the country. Still, analysts say the category is holding up better than the overall market.

The Census Bureau reports the Homeowner Vacancy Rate was a record 2.7% in Q4 2006.

January 29th Blogger Sentiment Poll

FROM TICKER SENSE:

Financial bloggers broke the 50% mark for bearish responses for just the second time since we began the poll back in July. Millionaire Now! remains bearish on equities and took a bit off the table last week.

WORLD GOLD INDICES

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold & Silver Gain Over 1% & 3% this Week
By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Gold fell a few dollars in Asia and dropped near $640 in London before it rebounded in New York, but it still ended with a loss of 0.57%. Silver fell near $13.10 in London before it rebounded in New York and saw slight gains by late morning, but it then fell back off into the close and ended with a loss of 0.75%.

Fronteer Development - Gold & Uranium Winner by goldguru

COT Silver Report - January 26, 2007

Nano Silver update

Gold in new bull phase

House of Cards

SILVER WHEATON: PURE PLAY ON SILVER PRICES

WHERE HOUSING IS HEADED

Inventory of condos in San Diego and Miami are at 27 month sales rates. Flat to lower prices nationwide will naturally lead to higher floclosure rates. People should not be surprised. You simply don't have to lose your home to foreclosure if you can sell in the open market as prices rise. And, they have been rising for many years now.

The average 30-year mortgage rate was 6.14% last month, down from 6.24% in November, according to Freddie Mac. Inventories of homes fell 7.9% at the end of December to 3.51 million available for sale, which represented a 6.8-month supply at the current sales pace. 6 month inventory represents equilibrium.

Some of last year's strongest housing markets now are showing signs of cooling a bit. In the San Francisco Bay area, the median price paid for new and resale homes in December was $612,000, up just 0.5% from a year earlier, according to DataQuick. One of California's weakest markets last year was the Sacramento area. Anthony Graham, an analyst at Trendgraphix Inc., a provider of housing data, says sellers of previously occupied homes there have had trouble competing with the huge discounts and incentives offered by builders.

Better days are forecast for Phoenix, but at a cost. Follow the employment outlook as a predictor for a market's future health:

click to enlarge:


A quarterly survey of housing conditions in 28 major metropolitan areas by The Wall Street Journal showed that the inventory of unsold homes at the end of 2006 was up substantially in nearly all of the markets from the already plentiful level of a year earlier. The biggest increases were in the metro areas of Miami-Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, Tampa and Jacksonville, Fla.; Phoenix; and Portland, Ore. (Unlike the other cities, Portland had a lean supply of homes a year before.)

Housing Bubble and Real Estate Market Tracker

Silver's Season to Rally

The chart picture in silver, is way stronger that that of gold. In my previous posts I have made mention of the strong seasonal upward price tendency that silver displays at this time of year. Even in the face of falling gold at times.

Like gold, silver is now very overbought. Since the January 8th low of $12.095, March Silver has rallied over $1.50 or nearly 12 percent in price. That is a large amount.

Like gold, silver is in an Uptrend. Prices continue to make higher highs and higher lows. Like gold, silver is overbought and is need of either a price correction or price consolidation. Unlike gold, silver has a strong seasonal tendency to remain strong into March.

As long as prices don't get back under the most recent break low, $13.095 which occurred on January 24th, showing the overbought status of this market, silver remains a buy. Given the current chart formation, wait for Stochastics to either embed or correct. Embedded Stochastics occur when both the red "K" line and yellow "D" line stay over an 80 reading for 3-days in a row. As you can see on the chart below, that is not the case. This market is simply overbought at this time and will most likely begin to correct downwards or go sideways within days at the most.


From Inside Futures: "March Silver continue to surge with a 21.7 cent gain on the day to settle at $13.49. The day's range was $13.244 to $13.594. Silver bulls met sellers as the Gold market turned downward midway through the session, spurning spillover selling across the aisle at the COMEX. 2007 has brought increased volatility to the Silver market with this year's range being $12.099 to today's high of 13.594, or $1.495 per ounce, low to high. Bulls not point to $14 as the next target. Momentum still points to higher prices as bulls remain in control despite the sharp sell-off after posting today's new yearly high. Support basis March comes in at today's low of $13.40, followed by the lower end of the break-away gap at $13.315. Resistance is pegged at today's high of $13.594, followed by the $13.64 and $13.95 respectively. "

EXACTLY WHAT I HAVE BEEN SAYING FOR YEARS

Here I was, minding my own buisness, reading the WSJ's RealEstateJournal.com and read Why You Should Think Twice About Investing in Real Estate: "With homes getting cheaper, it's tempting to invest. But if your sole goal is making money, it's mighty hard to justify", when this paragraph popped out:

"According to home-finance corporation Freddie Mac, U.S. house prices climbed 6.2% a year over the past 30 years, versus 4.3% for inflation. Beating inflation by 1.9 percentage points a year is (pun intended) nothing to write home about. To make matters worse, after the current decade's blistering performance, even slimmer returns may lie ahead."

What I have been saying for a long time in the debate bewteen Stock returns (10.2%) vs Real Estate returns (6.2%) and visa versa is that there is no debate because of the incredible power of real estate compounding appreciation. Here, what I am pointing out is that with 80% leverage, your 20% equity would grow at a compounded rate of 31% per year! End of story. And, few of us would feel queasy about using 80% leverage in real estate compared with any leverage in the equities market.

What also makes the above Freddie Mac stat compelling is that in those 30 years, the national median home price has not had a YOY decrease over the previous year. Now, I will claim that it's actually quite easy to beat a national, state or local historical appreciation number if you know what you're doing and buy right.

Btw, the National Association of Realtors reported that there was an 8.4 percent drop in the existing home sales in 2006, falling to 6.48 million from the record 7.08 million level in 2005. Even with the sharp drop in sales last year, the median price of an existing home sold in 2006 managed to rise a slight 1.1 percent. But that was far below the double-digit gains during the boom years. The median home price had risen by 12.4 percent in 2005. Another year passes and prices did not decline, since 1930. Thanks to Noah for the link.

Sacramento Homes Seen as Nation's Riskiest, followed by San Diego

Bay Area's housing market is still the nation's 11th riskiest (again) among major metro areas, says mortgage insurer PMI Group. Phoenix ranks 22nd and Sacramento came in first. Once a quarter, PMI analysts weigh housing sales patterns and underlying economic factors to derive a risk index that shows, in theory, the chance that home prices in the nation -- or a specific region -- will fall within the next two years.

The winter 2006 report, released yesterday, shows San Francisco County with a 6-in-10 chance that house prices will fall by some measure here in the next 24 months. This report (below) shows how risk has changed in the past year: Bay Area's risk measure; its top-50 ranking; and the average risk measure of the top 50 U.S. markets. PMI's entire report IS HERE.

• Winter 2007 Economic and Real Estate Trends Report
• Appendix to Winter 2007 ERET
• Housing Bubble and Real Estate Market Tracker

Nasdaq Holds 50-Day Line...NYSE Nears High

The market closed last week on an upnote. The most important action took place in the Nasdaq market which bounced off its 50-day moving average (Chart below). Broader market measures have held up much better. The NYSE Composite Index ended the week just shy of its old high. It's well above moving average support.
It remains to be seen if the oversold rally in the oil market continues this week and if that causes any short-term profit-taking in the market. Even so, the NYA would have to break its January low to warrant any real concern. There continuing uptrend started at 8050 during June. The NYA needs a close at 9250 or higher to resume its uptrend. It requires a close at 8950 or lower to trigger a sell signal.

It is a positive that the NASDAQ and NDX just broke out. As long as they stay above those pivots, all is well. It is a positive that the Transports have come back to life as Oil plunged. It is a positive that breakouts are back to working again. For several weeks, we saw many failed names. It is a positive that so many leaders pulled back to their respective 50 day averages, held and turned back up.

Arizona State Banking Authority Targets Mortgage Fraud

State targets mortgage fraud
from the Arizona Republic, reports that a wave of mortgage fraud in the Valley has prompted state legislation that would define it as a crime punishable by up to 10 years in prison. Cash back deals are a newer form of mortgage fraud whose rapid spread in Arizona has alarmed regulators and real estate industry leaders. The fraud involves obtaining a mortgage for more than a home is worth and pocketing the extra money in cash. The deals inflate home values and can affect values across whole neighborhoods. Ultimately, lenders end up with bad loans. Felicia Rotellini, superintendent of the Arizona Department of Financial Institutions, said her agency was flooded with calls Monday from people reporting cash-back deals and other potential mortgage fraud. Valley appraiser Dennis McMillen said mortgage fraud is an issue in the housing market but that it's not always due to inflated appraisals. In some cases, he said "real estate agents and mortgage brokers are withholding the cash-back agreements from the contract, thus the appraiser and title company does not know of these agreements." Don Matheson of Re/Max Excalibur in Scottsdale said "this is a very big problem and very damaging to our real estate market. We need to catch these people and put them in jail."

Arizona economy expected to topple national numbers
from the Phoenix Business Journal, reports that Arizona will topple the expected U.S. growth rate of 3 percent in 2007 thanks to it's continuing population boom, according to ASU economist Edward Prescott, the keynote speaker at yesterday's Arizona Bank & Trust Economic Summit 2007, "Trends to Bank On". "The Arizona trend dominates," Prescott told the more than 300 who attended. Katie Pushor, chief executive and president of the Greater Phoenix Chamber of Commerce, said the state is the second destination for domestic migration next to Florida and the eight internationally. "People want to move to this state," she said. "There is an overwhelming perception of opportunity here." Unemployment is the lowest in 25 years, hovering under 4 percent, but escalating housing prices are keeping some workers from moving here, Pushor said. "Affordability is really an issue for the work force," she said. Also included is an article on this same speech from the Arizona Republic titled Arizona likely to outpace nation. In it, Edward Prescott is quoted as saying "there's got to be another 20 years of rapid growth, and then health thereafter."

Housing Bubble and Real Estate Market Tracker from SA

Apartment.com's recent informal survey of its rental-seeking customers revealed that the #1 reason renters nationwide will move this year is to find a bigger place (43.2%) vs. cheaper rent (33.8%) or a work relocation (19.5%) or other reasons (38.4%.) I wonder what apartment dwellers in the Bay Area are thinking...

Second-home markets: Where people are buying overseas from CNN Money

Freddie Mac said 89% of the loans it owns that were refinanced in the third quarter of 2006 had loan amounts at least 5% higher than the original mortgage balances, the threshold for considering a loan a cash-out refinancing. It's the highest share of cash-out refinance loans reported since 1990. Entire story from MarketWatch HERE

How to Speed Up the Sale Of Your Home This Winter
from the WSJ, reports that even though the spring selling season is still weeks away, there are steps you can take to move your house quickly.

HAVE FUN: · Exquisite Tiburon Estate [Byzantium]

IS ETHANOL FINANCIALLY VIABLE? AGAIN (in front of the State of the Union) Originally Posted in August

ETHANOL IS A NET ENERGY GAINER AND IS THEREFORE FINANCIALLY VIABLE, DESPITE WHAT A RECENT STUDY NOTED FROM CORNELL UNIVERSITY. ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE CORNELL WAS WORKING OFF OF OLD DATA. THE STUDY CLAIMED THAT IT COST MORE TO PRODUCE THAN ITS MARKET PRICE. THAT'S NOT CORRECT.

Sarah Nunelly, of www.materialprofits.com likes: ADM, VSE, and AVR.

From CNN Money.com: "Sorting through the ethanol hype" - Bubble brewing?

Lower Volume as Nasdaq Closes Under 50 DMA Line

Volume, a critical indicator of institutional demand, contracted on Monday, which mitigated some of the damage as the major averages fell. The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its fourth straight decline, and the Nasdaq Composite closed the session below its 50-day moving average (DMA) line for the first time since mid-August. Breadth was clearly negative as decliners trumped advancers by nearly a 2-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange.

PICTURED ABOVE: The Nasdaq Composite closed under 50-day moving average for the first time since mid-August, prompting some concern.

The tech sector sputtered again as the Networking ($NWX -1.18%), Semiconductor ($SOX -1.01%), Internet ($DOT -0.93%), and Software ($GSO -0.90%) indexes closed Moday's session unanimously lower. Weakness in the Retail ($RLX -0.97%), Healthcare ($HMO -1.13%), and Biotechnology ($BTK -0.63%) groups also created a drag on the major averages. However, the financial group actually held up relatively well as the Bank ($BKX -0.11%) and Broker/Dealer ($XBD -0.06%) indexes finished with tiny losses. The Gold & Silver Index ($XAU -0.77%) and Integrated Oil Index ($XOI -0.71%) also traded lower while the Oil Services Index ($OSX +0.06%) avoided more damage.

Dr. Brett's Market Synthesis: ES Pivot Points for Tuesday:
Pivot Level: 1432.25; R1: 1437.75; R2: 1444.00; S1: 1426.00; S2: 1420.50

Analyst Calls (JAN 23, 2007) & Pre-Market Stock Notes (JAN 23, 2007)

7 Stocks You Need to Know for Tuesday

January 22nd Blogger Sentiment Poll

FROM TICKER SENSE:

Bloggers became decidely more bearish in the past 7 days, as the percentage expecting a decline in the coming month rose to 45.95% from 28.57%. Please see below (click on link above) for individual expectations of those bloggers who wish that their results be displayed. I remain increasingly bearish and have taken a bit off the table.

Donchian's 20 Trading Guides

Richard Donchian's 20 Trading Guides
timeless truths about our unchanging natures -- and how these natures act and react in capital markets. From The Big Picture

On an unrelated note, a couple of years ago the president of a bank asked me to analyze the bank's commercial loan portfolio and get it ready for an FDIC audit. He was fairly new to the bank and asked me my opinion on the portfolio's strengths and weaknesses and the bank as a company. He also asked me how many people worked at the bank. I answered, "ABOUT 30%!".........

"IGNORANCE IS THE VOLUNTEER OF MISFORTUNE."

WORLD GOLD INDICES

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold & Silver End the Week with Over 1% Gains By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Gold traded mostly slightly higher in Asia and London before it steadily rose in late morning New York trade, doubled its gains in afternoon trade, and ended near its highs with a gain of 1.29%. Silver followed a similar pattern and gained 1.67%.

Banco Azteca, which has about 1,000 branches throughout Mexico, is about to launch a new service for those who like to save silver. It is the first bank in Mexico to offer this service; other banks are expected to follow suit, sooner or later.

The new service is called "Silver in the Vault". This service will provide savers with a safe place to store their one ounce silver "Libertad" coins, which Banco Azteca has been selling for some time now, having taken over the sale of these coins from its parent company, Grupo Elektra, which operates stores that retail durable household goods.

California December Home Sales

Earlier today and yesterday I posted the Bay Area 4th Quarter report and the Southland 4th quarter report. Now, DataQuick reports the entire state: California December Home Sales. There used to be a saying, "How goes California so goes the rest of the country", especially in real estate and housing.

Note that the median price paid for a home last month was $474,000. That was up 1.1 percent from November's $469,000, and up 3.5 percent from $458,000 for December a year ago. No price appreciation bubble here....

Click on sales graph above for larger image.

A total of 41,100 new and resale houses and condos were sold statewide last month. That's up 4.8 percent from 39,200 for November and down 22.2 percent from a 52,800 for December 2005. Last month's sales made for the slowest December since 1996 when 33,591 homes were sold.

Housing Bubble and Real Estate Market Tracker

HOW HIGH CAN SILVER GO?

Silver could post a high of $18/oz in 2007, the Switzerland-based MKS Finance have forecast, noting that it would average $13.75/oz with a lowpegged at $12/oz.

Having successfully attracted speculative funds to the market in 2006,seeing brighter prospects with the launch of an exchange traded fund, MKS expect silver to prove just as volatile this year.

"The launch of a Silver ETF last year and the broader speculative andinvestment interest in silver shall enable the metal to trade more and morelike a financial asset rather than a "pure" industrial commodity," said MKSanalyst Frederic Panizzutti, adding: "We believe the industrial supply anddemand balance to prevail in 2007 but expect the fresh inflow of investmentsassets to somewhat tighten the physical availability over time and result inshort lived but ample upside rallies."

He did suggest that "while we forecast silver to move toward $18/ozduring the course of the year, we do not see silver being able to hold thislevel for long. This year again, silver shall remain one of the most volatileand unpredictable precious metals."

click on chart above to enlarge

"As Silver suffered a similar New Year smack down to gold, broke down from a similar intermediate Head-and-Shoulders top area, and broke back above the "neckline" of the pattern on Friday, which is as a result also close to aborting. The strength of the move on Friday indicates that we should see follow through next week, but that the advance will stall out either at the resistance in the $13.25 area, or possibly at the resistance zone in the $13.75 - $15.20 area. At this point, depending on conditions prevailing at the time, we will consider shorting it with a fairly close overhead stop." Clive Maund

Office Rents in Parts of Phoenix top $40/sq. foot!

Home builders feel they have weathered the storm, index suggests
from the USA TODAY, reports that home builder sentiment improved in January to its strongest since July, as price cuts, lower mortgage rates and incentives fostered demand, the National Association of Home Builders said Wednesday. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market index rose to 35 in January, up from 33 in December, marking its highest reading since 39 in July. "Builders are starting to see that the worst is behind them and that buying conditions have improved to the point that greater optimism is warranted," said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders. The upturn in demand reflect lower mortgage rates since mid 2006, energy prices that sank from record highs, solid employment and household income growth, home price reductions and builder incentives, he added.

Office rents in parts of Phoenix top $40/sq. foot
from the Arizona Republic, reports that some office buildings in Phoenix at Camelback and 24th Street are commanding rents of more than $40 per sq. foot, rivaling rates of better known addresses in Chicago and Newport Beach, Calif. The Phoenix market average for Class A office space was $26.75 per sq. foot in the fourth quarter of 2006, according to Cushman & Wakefield of Arizona. Competitor CB Richard Ellis listed the Valley's Class A space at $29.21 per sq. foot. Across the Valley, the average asking rates for leases climbed between 15 percent and 20 percent in the past year, according to broker reports. Absorption of office space hit a new record, as nearly 3.5 million sq. feet were leased. The demand was based on strong job creation in 2006. Scottsdale Airpark showed the most job creation, followed by midtown Phoenix, according to the Cushman report. Larry Downing of Cushman & Wakefield says "the West Valley will be the submarket to watch in the next two to five years. Recent residential growth in the area and the addition of amenities like the University of Phoenix Stadium have helped position this submarket for future commercial growth."

HOW TO PROFIT FROM THE OFFICE CONDO BOOM NOW!

SoCal Home Price Data & more

Sorting out confusing, enticing mortgages from the Arizona Republic, reports that the Federal Reserve Board recently partnered with the Office of Thrift Supervision to revise the Consumer Handbook on Adjustable-Rate Mortgages, or the CHARM booklet. The revised booklet explains the many adjustable-rate mortgages, from interest-only to option-payment loans. Mortgage loan officer Amy Swaney of Scottsdale-based Premier Financila Services called it one of the best explainers on adjustable-rate mortgages she has seen so far. "A lot of the new adjustable-rate mortgages aren't right for everybody, but they do work for many people who understand and plan for the," said Swaney, who is also the past president of the Arizona Mortgage Lenders Association. Go to www.federalre serve.gov/pubs/arms/arms_ english.htm and look for the adjustable rate mortgage booklet. But, do people really read anything. Loans are "sold" and rarely "bought". Stay tuned.

Annexation will double Goodyear size from the Arizona Republic, reports that Goodyear is working out the details with Scottsdale-based Montage Holdings to pay for vital city services and infrastructure in the proposed 95 square-mile annexation area referred to as the Sonoran Village Planning Area near Mobile, south of Goodyear. Montage holds more than 10,000 acres in the area and plans on developing a self-sustaining community that would be considered a village of Goodyear. Plans call for an employment corridor, a town square, a regional mall and more than 30,000 homes. Montage would pay upfront for police and fire services, solid waste and sanitation services, fire and ambulance service, a building for city offices and a road connecting Rainbow Valley Road to Arizona 238. "It's Goodyear's policy to require that growth pays for growth," said Harvey Krauss, Goodyear's community development director. Once the population in the area fills in and new residents start generating tax revenue, it is likely that Montage would be reimbursed for a large amount of the upfront costs. Developers hope to have the annexation completed by May.

Fed says Western housing 'deteriorated'
Here's what the Fed's San Francisco unit thinks about Western real estate in the "Beige Book" – a report on regional economic conditions that comes out eight times a year. O.C. is in the Fed's 12th District, based in San Francisco. (DISTRICT MAP HERE) This regional real estate recap is the first for 2006 (ENTIRE REPORT HERE) ...

Pittsburgh's Commercial Market Exhibits Signs of Strength from The WSJ
reports that despite some glimmers of hope, real estate here is unlikely to take off. Investors are still passing on this former industrial region, given its below-average job growth and shrinking population.

SoCal Home Price Data: $300K = Low Income Housing
on Jan 18th, 2007 in Market Overview by Tim Iacono

Bay Area Home Prices end 2006 flat, Sales Slow

DataQuick on Bay Area home sales for December:
Sales have declined on a year-over-year basis the last 21 months. Last month's sales count was the lowest for any December since 1996 when 7,180 homes were sold. The average for all Decembers since 1988 is 8,339.

"Clearly the market is in a lull while potential buyers wait for lower prices. Because of seasonal factors prices may edge down during the next two months, but are likely to move up again in spring. An important factor is whether or not mortgage interest rates stay where they are. If they do, we should expect the market to pick up in March or April," said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick president.

The median price paid for a Bay Area home was $612,000 in December. That was down 0.6 percent from $616,000 in November and up 0.5 percent from $609,000 for December a year ago. The median peaked last June at $644,000.

Indicators of market distress are still in the normal range. Financing with adjustable-rate mortgages is flat. Foreclosure activity is rising but is still in the normal range. Down payment sizes are stable. Flipping rates and non-owner occupied buying activity are down, DataQuick reported.

To read more CLICK HERE.

Housing Bubble and Real Estate Market Tracker

Stocks Were Confined to a Tight Range

The major averages opened and finished the session mixed after spending the majority of the session confined to a relatively narrow trading range. The volume total on the NYSE was lower than Friday's level, and volume on the Nasdaq exchange was slightly above the prior session total. Ideally, volume recedes as the major averages consolidate following a recent rally higher. Decliners were about even with advancers on the NYSE, but decliners led gainers by a 16-to-14 ratio on the Nasdaq exchange.

PICTURED ABOVE: The Nasdaq Composite traded down while volume rose above Friday's total, which technically may be considered a sign of distribution or heavier selling from institutional investors who have the most influence on overall market's direction.

The Healthcare ($HMO +0.98%) group was one of the day's strongest gainers, meanwhile modest gains for the Biotechnology ($BTK +0.15%), Broker/Dealer ($XBD +0.18%), Bank ($BKX +0.21%), and Retail ($RLX +0.32%) indexes were offset by weakness elsewhere. The tech sector sputtered as the Semiconductor ($SOX -1.24%), Software ($GSO -1.21%), Internet ($DOT -0.63%), and Networking ($NWX -0.39%) indexes lost ground. Commodity linked areas also slumped as the Integrated Oil ($XOI -1.45%), Oil Services ($OSX -0.91%), and Gold & Silver ($XAU -1.35%) indexes ended unanimously lower.

Breakout strategies: Expect the Best, Manage the Risk

ES Pivot Points for Wednesday from Dr. Brett:
Pivot Level: 1438.75; R1: 1441.25; R2: 1444.50; S1: 1435.50; S2: 1433.00

Analyst Calls (JAN 17) & Pre-Market Stock Notes (JAN 17)

7 Stocks You Need to Know for Wednesday

Forecasts for 2007 from Chuck

"I expect a correction to start soon, lasting about three to four months with the market having an 8 to 10% decline. A narrow rally favoring large cap stocks will follow and last about four to five months, carrying the major averages to new highs. Then a bear market will arrive, lasting about nine months and seeing a 20% decline.

That puts the start of the bear market near the end of 2007. If so, 2007 shouldn't be a bad year – but it won't have the kind of big gains we've seen recently."

And on Housing:
"It is tough to predict the impact of rising long-term interest rates on the housing market. The economy has changed so much since the last rising rate environment in the 1960s. The banking and lending business has also evolved enormously. While you would imagine that higher rates could hurt housing, the appeal of housing as a hard asset could be increasingly attractive to a lot of people. If we enter an era of expanding households, that could overwhelm the negative impact of rising rates. On the other hand, baby boomers are downsizing. Housing is definitely a sector where any forecast is difficult. "

Entire forecast by Ken Tower HERE

A Dash of Insight looks at Long-term Sentiment: 2001 to Date

A CRASH WHERE PRICES GO UP? The Southland Checks in

"The median price paid for a home in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties was $495,000 last month, a new record. That was up 1.6 percent from $487,000 for the month before, and up 3.3% from $479,000 for December a year ago, according to DataQuick Information Systems. The previous peak was $493,000 last June. Year-over-year price increases have been in the single digits for nine months. Last month's record median was in large part due to strong sales of new homes, which is normal for December." For all of 2006, Southern California experienced a 5.7% increase in price appreciation year over year!

By the county, the December results: HERE

And, in Orange County, December's median price of $642,000 is just 3.4% above 2005's final result, making the 2006 the slowest year or appreciation of values since 1996 as measured by year-end-to-year-end gains. However, these gains come on the backs of several spectacular years and has dumbfounded the bubble enthusiasts. Not to worry, any positive data that doesn't support their dire case is simply dismissed as "flawed".......stay tuned.

And, the national median condo price, which rose from $168,500 in 2003 to $223,900 in 2005, only rose slightly in 2006 to $224,600.

Housing Bubble and Real Estate Market Tracker

Phoenix Homes Seen as 39.7% "Overvalued"

Phoenix homes were said to be 39.7% overvalued in the third quarter, according to a study by Global Insight/National City Corp. That's down from 41.0% in the previous quarter. It's also up from 28.2% in the year-ago period. Global Insight/National City Corp. considers any area above 34% to be extremely overvalued, such as San Francisco and Phoenix.

In their report they wrote of the national picture: "Sixty-three metro areas were judged to be (extremely) overvalued during the quarter, representing a decline from 66 metro areas during the second quarter. More important were declines in the share of all housing units, and real estate assets, judged to be overvalued. In terms of housing units, the percent deemed to be overvalued declined from 21 to 17 percent. In terms of single family asset value, the percent deemed to be overvalued declined from 39 to 33 percent. Clearly, we interpret the evidence as reflective of prices reverting to their historic norms."

To read entire report CLICK HERE to see the quarter to quarter price appreciation by city and to see the Past Price Correction list.

Also, Fannie Mae economist David Berson asks: How large is the housing overhang?

January 15th Blogger Sentiment Poll

FROM TICKER SENSE:



While financial bloggers are usually very opinionated, they are currently not very decisive, as the percentage of "neutral" responses is at 45.71%. I remained, stubbornly bearish and plan to take a few chips off the table this week.

Home Prices Expected to Rise, Sales to Drop Slightly in 2007

Home Prices Expected to Rise, Sales to Drop Slightly in 2007
The number of homes sold will decline less sharply this year than last year, while price appreciation will gain steam. The median sales price for existing homes is predicted to reach $225,300 nationally.

Real estate slowing felt in W. Valley from the Arizona Republic,
reports that the West Valley's housing market followed the Valley-wide slowing trend in 2006 with homeowners worrying about slipping values and sellers struggling with a sea of listings. But the market is good news for buyers as sellers reduced prices and offered incentives to lure a deal. "Buyers had a lot of choices in 2006 and remain in the driver's seat," said Meredith Andrews, a Realtor at Windermere West Valley in Surprise. "They can bargain a little bit, and sellers have an incentive to make sure their properties look great." However, the growth in the west Valley is helping as it is becoming a desired spot with all of the new master-planned communities and the new Westgate area. As for the West Valley's resale housing market, Andrews anticipates a correction in the market by midyear. "It will take a little more time for listings to start moving again," Andrews said. "The trick will be to price right."

Many Health-Care WorkersAre Priced Out of Housing
These professionals may be in demand, but in many cities they aren't able to afford a median-price home, according to a new study.

Housing planned at Town Lake from the Arizona Republic,
reports that two housing developments are proposed for near Tempe Town Lake near the new Tempe Center for the Arts. Town Lake Villas would contain eight multimillion-dollar single-family homes ranging from 4,600 to 5,800 square feet with underground parking with space for at least four vehicles, elevators to the homes second floors and rooftop gardens with Jacuzzis. Next door, plans for more condos and townhomes are being proposed by Zacher Homes, who wants to build four condominium towers that could reach 25 stories. Preliminary plans show the "Residences at the Arts Park" would be on the northwestern corner of Roosevelt and First Street. Neither of the project's developers was willing to talk about prices for the homes, but city officials said they expect the Town Lake Villas homes could cost up to $2 million. The developers behind the Residences at the Arts Park units say the condos will cost about $400 per square foot to build.

Americans struggle to afford housing
An annual income of about $85,000 is needed to afford median-priced homes; salaries have not seen modest gains, according to a study.
While the median home price in the 202 largest metropolitan areas declined 2 percent from a year ago to $248,000 in the third quarter of 2006, mortgage rates rose enough over the year that homes actually became less affordable as pay did not keep pace.
"The real story is what happened to salaries," Lipman said. "Lower-paid occupations - such as in retail, or home health workers - their salaries went up only about 3 percent."

Barron's Digest January 15, 2007 Issue

Barron's annual roundtable participants made their 2007 picks:

For John Neff: Huntsman ((HUN), YRC Worldwide (YRCW), Citigroup (C), and DR Horton (DHI). For Art Samberg: Monsanto (MON), Research In Motion (RIMM), Tenaris (TS), Foster Wheeler (FWLT), Cheasepeake Energy (CHK), XTO Energy (XTO), Everest Re (RE), and Axis Capital (AXS). For Oscar Schafer: CBS (CBS), Tyco (TYC), Flamel Tech (FLML). For Meryl Witmer: Chaparrel Steel (CHAP), Walter Indusries (WLT), Deckers Outdoor (DECK). Felxi Zulauf picks: Newmont (NEM), Gold Fields (GFI), Harmony Gold (HMY), Glamis Gold (GLG), Llhir Gold (LIHR). For Scott Black: Apache (APA), Bronco Drilling (BRNC), Home Solutions (HSOA), Altra Holdings (AIMC), Arrow Electronics (ARW), and Severn Banc (SVBI).

Four small-cap stocks whose steady records appeal to funds:

1. Waste Connections (NYSE:WCN - News)
2. Chattem (NASDAQ:CHTT - News)
3. Synaptics (NASDAQ:SYNA - News)
4. Emcor Group (NYSE:EME - News)

The Berkshire Hathaway Portfolio: Here's the complete list of Berkshire's equity portfolio, ranked from the largest position to the smallest. Despite having 39 names in the portfolio, Berkshire's holdings are very concentrated. The top 10 stocks account for more than 80% of the portfolio: American Express, Anheuser-Busch, Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO - News), Conoco Phillips (NYSE:COP - News), Johnson & Johnson, Moody's (NYSE:MCO - News), Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG - News), Washington Post (NYSE:WPO - News), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC - News), and Wesco (AMEX:WSC - News).

Kiplinger's top ten stock recommendations for 2007: Atrion (ATRI), CompuCredit (CCRT), Emcor Group (EME), Meredith (MDP), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Ntelos (NTLS), SkyWest (SKYW), ConocoPhillips (COP), Universal Forest Products (UFPI).

TRADING WISDOM FROM DR. DORN

Dr. Janice Dorn, aka The Trading Doctor, made some interesting comments this morning about trading and trading psychology:

1. On why doctors and lawyers (who are used to working within sets of rules) fail in their stock trading: "They (markets) move and they fluctuate. It's an open game. You choose if you want to play and you play by your own rules. You are master of your own destiny."

2. "Your brain will always lie (fool you), but not your heart. Listen to your heart".

3. Trading: "We do not trade the markets. We trade our beliefs and our money."

4. "Markets are not efficient nor are they random. We are buying and selling risk."

5. "Trading is 100% neurological. We design, test, backtest, execute, take profits, and cut losses. 50% of us want to lose money!"

6. "Many of us resist life."

7. "It's important for the trader to embrace the emotions."

8. "The markets communicate unique moments. We will always have that moment and will learn from it."

9. "Risk is the intersection of Danger & Opportunity."

Prepare for the worst, but expect the best.

WORLD GOLD INDICES

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold & Silver Gain Over 3% & 5% on the Week By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Gold traded mostly slightly lower in Asia, mostly slightly higher in London, and came into New York about a dollar lower. It next rose over 1% in midmorning trade, remained near its highs for the rest of the morning, and then more than doubled its gains in afternoon trade and closed with a gain of 2.11%. Silver followed a very similar pattern and closed with a gain of 3.48%.

"Silver is at or near a low risk buy point right now. On December 4, I called for a top in silver and I expected to be buying again at a price in the low to mid $12 range. Silver has corrected since then by almost $2 and is hovering just above its 200 day moving average (DMA) of 12.21. I bought some silver in the drop last Friday and will likely complete my purchases this week or next. I am waiting to see if we get a sell off this Thursday or Friday that will take it below the 200 DMA. The rest of this article focuses on the logic and analysis I am using to determine when to buy." Entire article HERE.

COT Silver Report - January 12, 2007
Silver Manufacturing to Get Boost in Dubai

PRICE YOUR HOUSE PROPERLY FROM DAY ONE!

Housing market pain not revealed by stats : Home sellers are crying but the data doesn't seem to reflect their woes, from CNN Money

"Expectations also come into play. "What sellers are most complaining about is expected price," said chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association, Doug Duncan.

People, he explains, hear that a neighbor's home sold for $500,000. They think that their house is better so it's worth more. They price it at $550,000.

But the house's objective value is really only $500,000. Since the seller has priced it too high, it sits for months. In today's market, the house may not sell, even after a price reduction to $500,000, partially because the house is now slightly stigmatized because it has sat on the market so long. To the seller, the market just stinks."

This is a classic mistake made by sellers and their agents. You only get one shot a your first broker's tour and first open house, so price the house correctly. A house priced too high also sends a message to the world that you will be too hard to negotiate with and potential buyers won't even bother making an offfer even if they like the house.

"Many of the bigger price decreases in the area were due to unrealistic pricing in the first place, she said -- like homes with comparable sales at $775,000 priced at $950,000." And, a drop back down in pricing to it's comp does not mean prices are dropping for these $775,000 houses.

Andrew Waite, publisher of the magazine that I write for, Personal Real Estate Investor Magazine, said advertising sales and contracts with real estate vendors can "predict a lot of forward behavior," as can subscription trends.

"We have broken records in both categories in (the fourth quarter of 2006) and into the first issues of '07. Life is good and getting better," Waite says. "The illusion is looking at a highly inefficient market and trying to apply economic metric that fit commodity markets. It does not work."

And, What's Become Of The Condo Conversion? IBD looks at conversion trends around the country and identifies some areas of strength and weakness.

"Most of the successful conversions were and continue to be located in gentrified downtowns where housing has been scarce and unaffordable. New condos with granite counters, stainless steel refrigerators and ranges, and hardwood flooring have appealed to young professionals looking to build equity in a first home and to retiring baby boomers seeking an urban lifestyle in a renovated beaux arts or art deco building.

The main factor driving condo conversions, though, has been relative cost. In Phoenix a converted condo cost $159,900 in 2005 compared with $299,900 for a single-family home. In San Diego, where the average single-family home price rose 25% a year until recently, a condo can be had for $300,000, says real estate firm CB Richard Ellis, while detached houses start at $480,000." ENTIRE STORY HERE

Housing Bubble and Real Estate Market Tracker

Make Your Home Worth More in 2007

5 Things That Could Go Wrong & Ways to Simplify Your Investment Life

It's prudent for investors constructing their portfolios for the coming year to consider what can go wrong. Five risks to consider:


1: Puny profits.
If Corporate America doesn't deliver the bottom-line results that Wall Street is expecting, investors will be disappointed, and stocks could suffer, says Abhijit Chakrabortti, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Chase. Analysts expect companies in the S&P 500 to grow earnings at a 9.3% clip in 2007, down from 15.5% in 2006, says Thomson Financial. But even analysts' lowered forecasts may be too "ambitious," Chakrabortti says.

2: Faulty Fed forecast.
There are two possible scenarios related to interest rates that could pose a problem for stocks, says Tom McManus, chief investment strategist at Banc of America Securities. The first is if the economy keeps chugging along and the Federal Reserve does not lower short-term interest rates as investors expect — or actually raises rates. The second scenario is if the Fed lowers rates more than investors envision. "The only reason we get more easings is if the economic environment is weaker than anticipated," says McManus.

3: Recession reality.
If oil cracks $75 per barrel again in 2007, that would put a "wrench in the bulls' plans," says Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer at Johnson Illington Advisors. The reason: An energy spike coupled with continued weakness in the housing market would exacerbate consumer cash-flow problems. That means a "higher chance of recession," says Johnson.

4: Inflation worsens. If price increases for consumers and producers don't abate and continue to test levels the Fed is not comfortable with, more interest rate increases are likely, says Johnson.

5: Political problems prove perilous. "If tensions in the Middle East were to broaden and deepen, energy prices are likely to spike, and I'm not sure the global economy will be able to swallow that," says Mike Ryan, head of UBS Wealth Management Research Americas.

Diversification by style and by sector will offset many of these concerns. Continue to monitor and rebalance your portfolio so that you don't become overweight in a sector that has broken down or was last year's hot group.

now see 5 things that could go right

Seven Ways to Simplify Your Investment Life:

1. Stick with the Basics
2. Investigate One-Stop Funds
3. Index
4. Take the Best and Leave the Rest
5. Jot Down Why You Own Each Investment
6. Consolidate Your Investments with a Single Firm or Supermarket
7. Put Your Investments on Autopilot

Entire Article HERE

Current Coin Recommendations

GOLD:

• $20 Liberty in Extremely Fine (XF) condition. $745 each.
• $20 St. Gaudens in Almost Uncirculated (AU) condition. $785 each.
• $10 Liberty in XF condition for just $375 each.
• $5 Liberty in XF condition for just $195 each.
• $20 St. Gaudens in in Mint State 63, $890 each. (speculative)

SILVER:

• Peace Silver Dollars in Mint State 60, 20 coin roll is $405.
• 1921-P Morgan Silver Dollars in Mint State 60, 20 coin roll is $445.

As always, with insurance in mind, I recommend 1 oz 2006 silver and gold Double Eagle rolls aka Gold American Eagles

Is Silver near a bottom?

Local Housing Market for 2006: PRICES UP, SALES DOWN

Home sales fall, but prices rise , from the Arizona Republic, reports that sales of existing Scottsdale homes dropped 40 percent in 2006 from the previous year while the median price edged up 13.3 percent to $595,000. Scottsdale captured 7.7 percent of the Valley's 67,035 home resales. The median price in south Scottsdale increased 14.3 percent last year to $320,000. It was up 13.3 percent in north Scottsdale to $682,000. Sales of existing condos fell 35 percent to 2,900 transactions, but prices climbed nearly 9 percent to $264,005. Paradise Valley's median price for existing homes increased 25 percent to $1.65 million. "The luxury market is as strong as ever," said Scottsdale Realtor Mark Tait of Realty Executives.

Area home sales down, prices up from the Arizona Republic SE Valley,
reports that in 2006, sales dropped 57 percent to 1,055 in Ahwatukee Foothills; 41 percent to 4,625 in Chandler; 44 percent to 3,730 in Gilbert; 42 percent to 7,600 in Mesa and 32 percent to 1,785 in Tempe. However, prices rose in 2006 anywhere from 8.5 percent in Ahwatukee Foothills to 14 percent in Tempe. Sales slowed because people seem to be settled in, content with their homes and not interested in moving, said Jay Butler. "There is no reason for them to pack up and move on", he added.

Existing home sales in December worst of 2006 from the Arizona Republic,
reports that metropolitan Phoenix's resale market finished the year with 67,035 homes sold, down from the boom years of 2004 and 2005, according to the latest numbers released by the Realty Studies Group at ASU. In 2005, there were 110,835 resales in the Valley. December 2006 sales were the worst monthly total for the entire year. Experts blame investors, many of whom fled the Valley, leaving a glut of housing behind. "They were the driving force", said Jay Butler, who heads Realty Studies. "They were the ones who would pay any price for a home." Single-family resale inventory stands at more than 42,000, nearly double that of 2005. Median prices rose nearly 50%, from $174,815 in 2004 to $260,000 in 2006. Many people are looking to this year with hopes of better times. Some agents say they are seeing buyers who stayed on the sidelines early in 2006 moving into the market. Agents say houses in good locations and at realistic prices will sell, and they are seeing a different type of buyer, the person who wants to stay put rather than the quick-money investor.

Real Estate News and Property Reports from The WSJ

What Home Buyers Want in 2007 And Housing Hot Spots
This week's focus on news from across the Web takes a look at home features that could make or break the sale of your house, a trailer-park town in Florida where residents stand to make millions, why median prices have jumped at least 40% in one Connecticut county and why South Korean nationals are snatching up U.S. property.

Post Housing Bubble, Property Still Pays
There's still plenty of money to be made in real estate. In an excerpt from "The Wall Street Journal Complete Real-Estate Investing Guidebook," we take a look how to do it and include pointers on the basics of property investing.

Speculators Helped Fuel Florida's Housing Boom
The early run-up in home prices in Naples, Fla., was based on strong economic fundamentals. But it's increasingly evident that investors here and elsewhere played a greater role than previously thought in pumping up the real-estate bubble -- especially near the end of the run.

APARTMENTS: Failed Condos Spur Rise in Vacant Apartments
HOTELS: Big City, Smaller Rooms: Suburban Hotel Chains Go Urban
OFFICE: Tenants May Gain Clout In Office-Rental Market
REITS: Japanese REITs Are on a Roll As Prices in the Sector Climb
REITs Are Sitting Pretty in U.K. With Prospect of Takeover Deals

Emerging Markets Suffer Weekly Reversal

The MSCI Emerging Markets iShares (EEM) suffered a downside weekly reversal on heavy volume as shown in the chart below. In fact, the EEM had its biggest weekly fall in more than three months. At the very least, that suggests that a pullback of some type is probably in store. That cautious view is supported by the 14-week RSI line (blue line) which had been trading in overbought territory over 70 for the first time since last May. The RSI line has fallen below 70 for the first time since the last EEM peak eight months ago. Since emerging markets had been leading the global rally during the second half of 2006, any serious pullback in that group would most likely weaken most other global stock markets – including the US.

2,000 Scottsdale Residences to Open in '07: SOLD OUT

2,000 Scottsdale residences to open in '07 from the Arizona Republic, reports that about 2,000 new residences are set to open in downtown Scottsdale this year. The city's biggest condo projects, including the 700-unit Optima Camelview Village and the 198-unit Scottsdale Waterfront, are scheduled to open most or all of their residences by fall. About a dozen other projects, including a six-story tower adjacent to the Hotel Valley Ho and the residences at W Hotel, are scheduled to open before the end of 2007. Other projects scheduled for completion this year include the 227-unit Safari Drive development on Scottsdale Road northeast of Camelback Road. Just to the east, the 225-room W Hotel will feature 25 luxury condos. In addition to the residential development, several commercial and retail developments are also planned to open, including the first phase of South Bridge, which features 115,000 square feet of retail, restaurant and office space and is scheduled for an August opening.

Home market will heal slowly from the Arizona Republic,
reports that metropolitan Phoenix's new-home slump still has several months to run, according to experts who spoke yesterday at the Urban Land Institute's Real Estate Trends conference in Phoenix. My take is that it runs much longer. Housing accounts for one of every three dollars in the region's economy, and a prolonged slump would bring pain on several fronts. "What we saw (in the boom) we will never see again in our lifetimes", said Steve Hilton, chief executive of Scottsdale-based Meritage Homes. The consensus from the experts is that the new home market will bottom out this spring or summer. Greg Vogel of the Land Advisors Organization said Valley home building will run at a rate of 35,000 to 40,000 new-home permits a year, down from the 60,000 range during the 2005 market. Pete Bolton of CB Richard Ellis spoke on the Valley's commercial markets, saying they are in good shape. Vacancies have fallen in the office, retail and industrial markets. Keep in mind that as Beezer's CEO observed, about 75% of the home building business is still in private hands. And, that new home builds account for about 15% of the entire housing market.

Housing Bubble and Real Estate Market Tracker
on Jan 10th, 2007 in Market Overview by Judy Weil with stocks: CFC, COF, LFG, LOW,

The 10 Hottest-Selling Mutual Funds Are Also Keepers

Most of the top funds from Morningstar are in the large cap sectors and have become a bit too large. But, they conclude that they just might be worth holding through another year. Read their descriptions HERE. (and updated HERE)


Honor Roll Mutual Funds & Top Holdings from the Kirk Report: "Roy Weitz is a harsh critic for the mutual fund business and, while I'm not a fund focused investor, I do read his monthly report.

To start off the new year, Roy decided to do something a little different by providing a honor roll list of the best-of-the-best mutual funds. While his list is a good one for mutual fund investors to research, those of us who don't use mutual funds may still want to peruse though these fund's top 25 stock holdings to see how these "best of the best" funds are currently positioned and what they've been buying recently. (I have provided the direct links to Roy's chart below to save you some time)" SEE FULL LIST HERE

Chuck Jaffe of MarketWatch presents Seven Mutual Fund stories that will make big news in 2007 - "One of the great things about my job is that I never quite know where "the story" will lead me next. But this is the week where I guess. Each year at this time, I take a crack at predicting the big fund-industry stories of the coming 12 months.

Since I started making prognostications in 1995, five calls out of seven have typically turned out right, with one forecast being a bit too early and the other being flat-out wrong.

My selections will not be the fund world's only hot news, but I am confident that we'll see the following in 2007": HERE

Here is Millionaire Now's The Best Large Fund Descriptions

Shopping for a Home In a Buyer's Market

Colby Sambrotto, COO of ForSaleByOwner.com, a no-commission real estate marketplace, offers these rules for shopping for a new home in a buyer's market:
(my comments included in blue)

• Don't limit yourself. While you should look for homes that are listed with real estate agents, don't discount properties that are for sale by owner. They make up about 25% of the market, and you may be able to find a good deal with one of them thanks to a lack of agent commission and fees. If you go this route, take dual signed instructions directly to the title/escrow company.

• Hold onto a property for a while. Now is not the time to buy a condo or home to flip quickly for a profit. Make sure you buy a property at a good value -- you're more likely to have a good sale in the future. - Always buy a property at a good value. It's the key to making money. And, I have never advocated for flipping a property.

• Take your time. There's no need to rush in this market, so don't worry about putting in the highest bid or writing a check the minute you like a place. Research the neighborhood to find out if the asking price is consistent with other homes in the area. - But, don't think that you can't find a screaming deal early in the process. You'll know it if you've done your homework.

• Ask for incentives. To sell their homes, owners may be willing to throw in extras such as appliances, work sheds, drapes or even patio furniture for the asking price. Try negotiating some extras. - Always aks for more even in a good market. Just be sure to "tie-up" the property in a seller's market if you're a buyer.

• Shop around for a mortgage. To get the best deal available, ask for as many quotes as you can. If you get a pre-approved mortgage, you'll have even more leverage at the negotiation table. - Today, you simply must get pre-approved prior to submitting an offer. Two quotes is quite enough: one from a broker and one from a direct lender to not waste time.

Market Report: Buyers Out In Full Force in NYC from UrbanDigs

Arizona Avoids Southwest's Big Foreclosure Jump

Arizona avoids Southwest's big foreclosure jump from the Phoenix Business Journal,
reports that while the Southwest led the U.S. in foreclosures for 2006, Arizona had only a minimal contribution to the upswing, according to figures released yesterday by Foreclosures.com, a California-based real estate investment advisory firm. California, Texas and Colorado were among the states with the most foreclosures. California led the nation with 157,417 foreclosure filings, up 94.3 percent from 2005. Colorado saw filings rise 55.4 percent to 68,310. Texas rose 35.2 percent to 106,845 foreclosure filings. Nevada saw a huge increase of 174.8 percent to 24,194 foreclosure filings in 2006. In Clark County alone (Las Vegas), there were 7,000 foreclosure filings in the last three months of 2006. In contrast, Arizona foreclosure filings rose just 8.2 percent to 21,774 filings in 2006, up from 20,117 in 2005. Nationally, there were 970,948 foreclosure filings in 2006, up more than 51 percent from the 641,000 in 2005

Afternoon Rally Lifts Stocks

It was encouraging to see the major averages overcome earlier weakness and close higher. Volume was lower behind Monday's bounce, which was not the ideal circumstance. Breadth was positive as advancers led decliners by 19-to-13 ratio on the NYSE while the mixed was about even on the Nasdaq exchange.

PICTURED BELOW: The S&P 500 Index gained on lighter volume than the prior session, not showing a convincing upturn, while still remaining above its a 50-day moving average (DMA) line.

Financial shares had a positive bias as the Broker/Dealer Index ($XBD +1.44%) and Bank Index ($BKX +0.21%) ended higher. The Healthcare ($HMO +0.44%) group also traded up. Meanwhile, the Retail Index ($RLX -0.00%) was unchanged, and there was not much action in the commodity related areas as the Gold & Silver ($XAU -0.13%), Oil Services ($OSX +0.05%), Integrated Oil ($XOI +0.17%) indexes closed with only minor changes.

Monday's biggest stock gainers and decliners

Pre-Market Stock Notes (JAN 9, 2007)

Dr. Brett's Bottom Line: "Flat going into Tuesday. We got expected weakness early in the session, but a number of sectors showed relative strength. When the laggard small caps picked up on strong buying, it was pretty clear that we put in a low for the day. A second burst of buying in the early afternoon (see above) took us to highs for the day before selling off a bit. This sets up a trading range defined by the highs of Friday and Monday and Monday's lows. My initial leaning will be to the sell side if buying dries up without sustaining a move above the range highs; when markets close near their day's highs on improved momentum, the odds of trading above those highs the next day are quite high. The question is whether we can sustain those highs, and I expect the usual indicators to provide decision support. "

7 Stocks You Need to Know for Tuesday

Short-term Trading tracks many of the weak sectors in the recent market.

California outbound moves at 4-year low, United Van says

United Van Lines count of its moving-truck business found that California had its best showing in four years in 2006.

United says it has tracked shipment patterns annually on a state-by-state basis since 1977. For 2006, the accounting is based on the 227,254 interstate household moves handled by United among the 48 contiguous states, as well as Washington, D.C. In its study, United classifies each state in one of three categories -- “high inbound” (55 percent or more of moves going into a state); “high outbound” (55 percent or more of moves going out of a state); or “balanced.” Although the majority of states were in the “balanced” category last year, several showed more substantial population shifts.

And ... "California (52.4%) saw its lowest outbound percentage in four years." That was 27,435 of 50,859 moves. In, '05, "California (55.7%) – 2005 marks the first time the state has seen a high outbound number since 1995."

Full release IS HERE.

Valley's Commercial Buildings Sold Well in 2006

Valley's buildings sold well in 2006 from the Arizona Republic, reports that while the housing market went through a significant stall in 2006, commercial real estate gained momentum. The year was one of low vacancies and increasing rents and plenty of deals. "Overall, 2006 was stronger that 2005 in deal volume," said Mike Coover with Grubb & Ellis. And even more deals would have been likely, he said, if only there was more space to show in the Phoenix market. Notable deals included two sales at more than $100 million each, several companies moving into larger than average industrial buildings, a big land sale, and corporations investing in headquarter or regional offices in Phoenix, The big land deal noted was DMB's purchase of 3,200-acres in the Williams Gateway area that was part of the GM Proving Grounds.

Issues to Consider for the Individual Investing in Commercial Real Estate

HOW TO PROFIT FROM THE OFFICE CONDO BOOM NOW!

Business Real Estate Outlook Sunny for '07 from the Arizona Republic, reports that most real estate experts expect commercial real estate in the Valley to have a very merry 2007. The consensus is that rents in all sectors will grow, vacancies will remain low, and institutional investors will continue pouring money into the area. The Valley is expected to be the choice location for companies that have traditionally looked to Southern California, Dallas, Denver and Atlanta to set up warehouses and office support. Economists are expecting that supply and demand for commercial real estate will be in balance in 2007, said Lee McPheters, director of the JP Morgan Chase Economic Outlook Center at ASU. "There's nothing right now putting the brakes on it," said Mc Pheters. The article gives individual forecasts for the industrial, office, retail and multi-family sectors. Very positive!

Commercial Real Estate Returns by quarter since 1978: Eye Popping

More Commercial Real Estate News

Tenants May Gain Clout In Office-Rental Market
New data indicate that conditions could be turning a little more in the favor of tenants, after strong rent increases pushed through by landlords in 2006.

A Quick Guide To High Yielding Commercial REITs

New REIT ETFs Open Up Lucrative World of Commercial Mortgages

January 8th Blogger Sentiment Poll

FROM TICKER SENSE:

The number of bullish and bearish bloggers ticked higher to start the year, as the number of neutral voters declined. Bearish sentiment for the market in the next month remains at the forefront though at 40%. I voted a stubbornly bearish again.

2006 Global Equity Market Returns: A Visual Perspective from Ticker Sense

Investment Outlook from Bill Gross January 2007

Cramer's Top 3X3 Picks in 2007: Value, Growth & Speculative

Last week Jim Cramer on CNBC's MAD MONEY gave us his top 9 picks for 2007. He gave 3 speculative picks, 3 growth picks, and 3 value picks and 24/7 WallSt.'s commentary on each:

Cramer's 3 Top Speculative Picks for 2007 from Friday are:
1) Level 3 Communications (LVLT)
2) Rite Aid (RAD)
3) Savient Pharma (SVNT)

The Cramer Top 3 Growth Picks in order for 2007 from Thursday are:
1) New York Stock Exchange (NYX);
2) Apple (AAPL);
3) Cisco Systems (CSCO).

The Cramer Top 3 Value Picks for 2007 from Wednesday in order are:
1) Altria (MO)
2) Goldman Sachs (GS)
3) Halliburton (HAL)

WORLD GOLD INDICES

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold & Silver Lose About 5% on the Week By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Gold fell a bit in Asia before it rebounded and traded near unchanged to slightly higher around $625 in London, but it then fell off markedly throughout morning trade in New York and dropped to as low as $601.50 before it rebounded a few dollars in afternoon trade and ended with a loss of 3.03%. Silver followed a similar pattern and dropped to as low as $12.02 before it rebounded slightly and ended with a loss of 4.27%

Pundits, Pundits Everywhere, but Not a Drop of Sense By: Charleston Voice So, for right now I'm in the silver juniors/explorers with both feet. Only a little loose change remains in the till. Optimistically, I'm seeing the volumes are waning, an indication that the flushing is finishing. GLD & SLV are still being unloaded, yes, but when you compare gold/silver equity volumes of today with the week before Christmas and May we are in better shape. I will tell you this, that although I may have committed prematurely, there's no other place I'd rather be. Imagine if you had to make a decision to buy now? Would you?

Avoid Reverse Mortgages: Just Say No

Cold Sales Give Renters a Break from The Washington Post reports,
Vacancies, Prices Affected as Owners Lease What They Can't Unload
As home sellers grew more frustrated with the slow local real estate market in recent months, they abandoned their for-sale signs and put their homes up for rent. That has increased choices and cooled prices for tenants in one of the tightest and most expensive parts of the country.

"This is the first sign that the cooling housing market is having an impact on the rental market," said Gregory H. Leisch, chief executive of Delta Associates ...

As competition for tenants intensified, apartment rents did not rise as sharply in the past three months of 2006 as they had earlier in the year, the report said.

I find it hard to believe that home sales decline and vacancies rise at the same time. Something has to give and I predict it will be rentals firming before housing sales.

Making Your House Pay in Retirement from the Wall St. Journal
A reverse mortgage can help ease your finances after you retire, or it could cost you and your heirs a lot of money. Long weighed down by high fees and complexities, these loans are now coming in for a cost-saving makeover.

Roughly 90% of all reverse mortgages are insured by the government through a so-called Home Equity Conversion Mortgage, or HECM and they make a fortune on this product at the detriment of retirees. The set up fees and commissions run about $12,000 and based on actuary tables the monthly payments are just too skimpy.

"Urban vs. rural geography plays a big factor in the equation. Rules for federally insured reverse mortgages limit how much of a home's value a homeowner can tap. The current limit in urban areas is $362,790, while most rural areas top out at $200,160. The federal government is considering a single national limit, though nothing has been proposed yet."

Housing Bubble and Real Estate Market Tracker
on Jan 5th, 2007 in Market Overview by Judy Weil

Gannon On Investing

His Personal Favorites
"I guess I should start by presenting my personal favorites from 2006 (in no particular order)":

On Confidence

On Inflexible Enterprises

On Maintenance Cap-Ex and "The Pleasant Surprise"

On Formulaic Investing

On Value Investing

On Conviction and the Value Gap

On the Physical Effects Fallacy

On Technical Analysis

On Some Lessons from Buffett's Annual Letter

On Paying a Fair Price

In Defense of Extraordinary Claims

And, great insight from TraderFeed:
Brief Therapy and Becoming Your Own Trading Coach - Part One, Part Two, Part Three
TraderFeed Posts on Psychology From 2006 - Part One, Part Two, Part Three
Evaluating Problems That Interfere With Trading
Excerpt From My Book on Trading Performance
Excerpt From My Book on Trading Psychology

Tax lien sales likely to drop at '07 auction

Tax lien sales likely to drop at '07 auction from the Arizona Business Gazette, reports that Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert says that "we believe we'll have 20,000 liens to offer this year", which is down from past years when as many as 28,000 properties were on the auction block. "We're doing a better job at collections", Schweikert said. "It's the right thing to do, to collect as much as possible, but it does represent a huge change for us." In early December, the Treasurer's office sent out 35,000 final delinquency notices carrying information about all delinquent taxes affecting a specific property. Schweikert's advice to homeowners, "open your mail". Potential bidders can go to the Treasurers web site for more information about the upcoming tax lien auction. http://treasurer.maricopa.gov/index.htm.

Now, keep in mind, the bidding is stricktly based on the rate of interest you are willing to receive. In Arizona, it starts at 16% and you bid it down from there. 90-95% of these transactions never result in the certificate owner ever actually getting the property after the 3 year waiting period. Also, you need to check the county list and research each property to make sure you don't get stuck with a bad lot. What's a bad lot? Try one that has been condemned by the EPA for chemicals to start with and requires the owner to clean it up or be sued.

What's the biggest threat to the Phoenix housing market? Nope. It's rising property taxes and over confidence.
Phoenix property values expected to rise 11 percent in 2007, from the Phoenix Business Journal, reports that property values in Phoenix are expected to rise 11.1 percent in 2007, according to a fourth quarter survey by Arizona Tax Liens.com. Buyers and sellers projected an average increase of 10 percent statewide, citing the large number of people immigrating to Arizona, fueled by high-tech and biotech job growth in Tucson and Phoenix, low housing costs and baby boomers buying retirement homes. Of the 5,000 people surveyed, 59 percent planned to buy real estate in Arizona in 2007 and 32 percent planned to sell. Arizona Tax Liens.com provides real estate investors with online access to Arizona tax lien lists.

Fed Minutes Curb Session's Earlier Gains

After a 4-day holiday break the major averages opened the new year on a positive note, however stocks reversed course after the minutes of the Federal Reserve's last meeting were released. The major average ended mixed and little changed while volume totals were higher than Friday's light pre-holiday levels. Breadth was mixed, decliners led advancers by an 18-to-16 margin on the NYSE and by a 16-to-15 margin on the Nasdaq exchange.

PICTURED: The S&P 500 Index gave back its early gains and closed the session in negative territory, with volume swelling greatly from quiet pre-holiday levels. While the actual price decline was small, the action is considered to be a day of "churning" where many willing sellers offset the buying demand coming in. It therefore was a day where the market encountered plenty of distribution or selling pressure from large institutional investors.

The Networking Index ($NWX +1.44%) was among the day's big gainers while the tech sector was mixed, with losses for the Semiconductor ($SOX -0.61%) and Biotechnology ($BTK -0.19%) indexes and modest gains for the Software ($GSO +0.21%) and Internet ($DOT +0.36%) indexes. The financial group was positive, led by the Broker/Dealer Index ($XBD +1.46%) while the Bank Index ($BKX +0.31%) posted a smaller gain. The Healthcare ($HMO +0.08%) group ended only slightly higher. Meanwhile, commodity related areas were clearly the hardest hit as the Oil Services ($OSX -4.36%), Integrated Oil ($XOI -3.17%), and Gold & Silver ($XAU -3.73%) indexes ended the day with considerable losses.

Bottom Line from Dr. Brett: "We saw serious institutional selling once it became clear that the market could not break above the 1440 resistance in the ES. We bounced hard off the lows for the day, but it's hard to be bullish about a market in which one average (Dow) makes a high by itself and everything else fails to confirm. The rally is becoming increasingly selective--not usually a sign of continuation. I'm flat overnight; my leaning is to sell into morning strength below Wednesday's average price for an anticipated test of Wednesday's lows."

• Pre-Market Stock News (JAN 4, 2006)
• Analyst & Research Notes (JAN 4, 2007)
• 7 Stocks You Need to Know for Thursday

Gold & Silver: Top 10 Company Rankings (by Size)

Name--------------------------------Market Cap Revenue (M)


1.Anglo American plc (ADR) ........$74,738.3.. $31,099.0
2.Barrick Gold Corporation (USA) $26,494.1.. $5,123.0
3.Newmont Mining Corporation ....$20,327.5.. $4,832.0
4.Goldcorp Inc. (USA) ...................$19,968.6.. $1,464.9
5.AngloGold Ashanti Limited (ADR) $12,961.9.. $2,714.0
6.Gold Fields Limited (ADR) .........$9,342.3.. $2,282.0
7.Harmony Gold Mining Co. (ADR) $6,261.4.. $1,372.0
8.Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited (USA) $4,979.2. $441.5
9.Kinross Gold Corporation (USA) $4,305.7.. $864.2
10.Yamana Gold Inc. (USA) ...........$3,870.8 NA

See them all 103

I own the following Gold & Silver mining stocks (5% of portfolio): Anglo American (AAUK), Coeur d'Alene (CDE), Eldorado Gold (EGO), Kinross (KGC), Northern Orion (NTO), Silver Wheaton (SLW), Golden Star (GSS), Orezone (OZN), Pacific Rim (PMU), Claude Resources (CGR), Baja (BAJFF), PBX (IPBXF), Crystallex (KRY)
Important note: gold stocks do not necessarily follow the price of the metal on a daily basis. They are still just pieces of paper to be traded, not to fall in love with and marry!

read:

• Important Update for the Precious Metal Market
• Cara's Stock of the Year for 2007: Crystallex
• Gold Investing: Stock Picks for 2007
  Fund selling hurts the metals
• Silver Ready to Roll
  

West Side Story: Growth Continues

6 developments are moving Surprise growth north, east
from the Arizona Republic, reports that a cluster of six new housing developments comprising more than 20,000 acres will account for Surprise's next growth spurt to the north and east, according to Surprise city planners. The communities are: Desert Oasis with 3,250 units; Austin Ranch with 2,481 units; Asante with 6,703 units; Tierra Verde with 538 units; Asante North with 8,962 units and Burke property, with 741 units. Desert Oasis is already underway, and plans for the Burke property and Asante North are heading to city council. Previously, most of Surprise's growth took place on the city's western area, near Sun City Grand and the Loop 303.

Housing Bubble and Real Estate Market Tracker
on Jan 3rd, 2007 in Market Overview by Judy Weil

GREAT DAY-OFF READING

Trader's Education:

1. Getting Started
2. The Trading System
3. Trading Psychology
4. Trading Cycles
5. Money Management
6. Paper Trading
7. E-mini S&P 500
8. E-mini Nasdaq
9. Mini-sized Dow

Trading Psychology — “The Trader’s Mindset”

Here's the list of the top 15 stocks, sectors and themes SA readers subscribed to in 2006:
Top 15 Most Popular Stocks
Microsoft (MSFT) (view articles; subscribe)
Apple Computer (AAPL) (view articles; subscribe)
Google (GOOG) (view articles; subscribe)
Intel (INTC) (view articles; subscribe)
General Electric (GE) (view articles; subscribe)
Yahoo! (YHOO) (view articles; subscribe)
Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) (view articles; subscribe)
eBay (EBAY) (view articles; subscribe)
Dell (DELL) (view articles; subscribe)
Cisco (CSCO) (view articles; subscribe)
Time Warner (TWX) (view articles; subscribe)
General Motors (GM) (view articles; subscribe)
Altria Group (MO) (view articles; subscribe)
Pfizer (PFE) (view articles; subscribe)
Ford (F) (view articles; subscribe)

SEE ENTIRE LIST HERE

• Buying Cheap Gold Bill Haynes 321gold
• Gold Trades Near Four-Week High as Dollar Drops Against Euro
• U.S. Dollar in 2007
• Metals in 2007
• Important Update for the Precious Metal Market
  

HIGH YIELDING REITs

The following is a list of the highest yielding residential REITs. In each case, whether it is an equity or a debt REIT is specified, along with the type of property the REIT invests in:

• Hanover Capital Mortgage Holding (HCM) 12.1% Mortgage
• American Mortgage Acceptance (AMC) 9.2% Mortgage
• BRT Realty Trust (BRT) 8.4% Mortgage
• Sun Communities (SUI) 7.7% Equity-Manufactured housing
• First RE Investment Trust of NJ 7.7% Equity-Apartments, Commercial
• UMH Properties (UMH) 6.6% Equity-Manufactured housing
• Investors Real Estate Trust (IRETS) 6.5% Equity-Apartments, Commercial
• Highland Hospitality (HIH) 6.2% Equity-Extended stay hotels
• CentraCore Properties Trust (CPV) 5.7% Equity- Detention facilities
• America 1st Apartments (APRO) 5.4% Equity-Apartments
• Associated Estates Realty Corp. (AEC) 5% Equity-Apartments
• American Campus Communities (ACC) 4.8% Equity-Apartments
• Home Properties (HME) 4.4% Equity-Apartments
• Fieldstone Investments (FICC) 4.3% Mortgage
• Apartment Investment & Mgmt (AIV) 4.3% Equity-Apartments
• United Dominion Realty Trust (UDR) 4.0% Equity-Apartments

Healthcare REITs:

• Healthcare Realty (HR) 6.9%
• Cogdell Spencer (CSA) 6.8%
• Health Care REIT (HCN) 6.1%
• Universal Health Realty Income Trust (UHT) 6.0%
• National Health Investor (NHI) 5.8%
• Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI) 5.8%
• Senior Housing Properties (SNH) 5.7%
• LTC Properties (LTC) 5.5%
• National Health Realty (NHR) 5.5%
• Nationwide Health Properties (NHP) 5.3%
  

After the Wild Ride

A fabulous article from Business Week: “After the Wild Ride” by Rochelle Sharpe Apr 16, 2001 discusses what it was like to have gained so much wealth so quickly and to have lost it just as fast.

In the article you will get to read about some real personal financial disasters and follow them through to the other side. For example, the ride up and down for limousine company owner Roy DuBrow, was wild. According to Sharpe, “at one point, DuBrow, 62, was nearly a millionaire, having watched his $100,000-plus bet on Net and tech stocks skyrocket 800%. He became addicted to the market. He started talking to his broker five times a day and became glued to CNBC. For a while, his obsession made him feel great.”

HOW CATEGORIES, STYLES AND SECTORS OF STOCK MUTUAL FUNDS PERFORMED IN 2006

Category & 1 Year total return:

• Large Cap Value: 18.17%
• Large Cap Blend: 14.10
• Large Cap Growth: 6.93
• Mid Cap Value: 15.89
• Mid Cap Blend: 13.86
• Mid Cap Growth: 9.03
• Small Cap Value: 16.32
• Small Cap Blend: 15.31
• Small Cap Growth: 10.50

Sector & 1 Year total return:

• Natural Resources: 10.19%
• Technology: 7.07
• Utilities: 26.00
• Healthcare: 4.04
• Financial: 16.86
• Real Estate: 33.83
• Comminications: 19.88
• Precious Metals: 31.53

International & 1 Year total return:

• World: 19.53%
• Foreign Large Value: 25.83
• Foreign Large Blend: 24.81
• Foreign Large Growth: 23.70
• Foreign Small/Mid Value: 26.59
• Foreign Small/Mid Growth: 26.79
• Emerging: 32.46

Balanced Funds & 1 year total return:

• Conservative Allocation: 8.13%
• Moderate Allocation: 11.39
• World: 17.32
• Convertibles: 10.87

source: Morningstar