Sacramento Homes Seen as Nation's Riskiest, followed by San Diego

Bay Area's housing market is still the nation's 11th riskiest (again) among major metro areas, says mortgage insurer PMI Group. Phoenix ranks 22nd and Sacramento came in first. Once a quarter, PMI analysts weigh housing sales patterns and underlying economic factors to derive a risk index that shows, in theory, the chance that home prices in the nation -- or a specific region -- will fall within the next two years.

The winter 2006 report, released yesterday, shows San Francisco County with a 6-in-10 chance that house prices will fall by some measure here in the next 24 months. This report (below) shows how risk has changed in the past year: Bay Area's risk measure; its top-50 ranking; and the average risk measure of the top 50 U.S. markets. PMI's entire report IS HERE.

• Winter 2007 Economic and Real Estate Trends Report
• Appendix to Winter 2007 ERET
• Housing Bubble and Real Estate Market Tracker